Welcome to Family Policy Matters, a weekly podcast and radio show produced by the North Carolina Family Policy Council. Hi, I'm John Rustin, president of NCFamily. In each week on Family Policy Matters, we welcome experts and policy leaders to discuss topics that impact faith and family here in North Carolina. Our prayer is that this program will help encourage and equip you to be a voice of persuasion for family values in your community, state, and nation. Hello, friends, and welcome into a special edition of the general election that happened this past Tuesday, November the third.
We're recording this on Wednesday, November the fourth. Gentlemen, the midterm elections. Jerry, as we've talked in preparation for the show, this election is historic but not unprecedented. You had a little bit of information on past midterm elections. Tell us more about that.
Yeah, it was. I know we've all heard a lot and read a lot leading up to the election, and especially afterwards. I found two things from highly respected Christian leaders who, in the world of the church and in government and politics and policy. And one of them said, "In the final analysis, midterm elections are always a referendum on the incumbent president." Similarly, the other wrote, "We have to remember that in the last 126 years, since 1900, when the party in the White House faces a midterm, whether it's first or second, 90 percent of the time." It loses house seats, and then it goes on to say, in seventy-five to eighty percent, senate seats are lost.
So, as you say, this is historic, but it's also there's history in what has happened. This is not a new development as far as what happens in these elections. Yeah, and I would add to that, Jerry. Just looking at voter turnout, this was relatively high voter turnout for a midterm election in two thousand eighteen. There was fifty-three percent turnout in twenty twenty-two.
Fifty. One percent, and for this midterm election, it was over fifty-three and a half percent turnout.
So, a lot of interest by voters. I would say a lot of intensity expressed in the polls, and some, I imagine, among many voters, they went to the polls to make a statement. Yeah, just about four point two million North Carolinian voters voted on Tuesday. There is going to be a lot of armchair quarterbacking, a lot of lessons to be learned, a lot of thoughts moving forward. For those of you that are unfamiliar, our House congressional delegation going into this election was ten for ten Republicans and four Democrats, and most people thought that was going to stay either eight six, maybe nine five, and possibly even eleven three for Republicans based on the redistricting that happened back in twenty twenty five.
John, that is not the case at all. No, it's not. It looks like our congressional delegation may have flipped completely to ten Democrats and four. Republicans. Yes, there were five incumbent members of the U.S.
House of Representatives, Republican members in North Carolina, who appear to have lost just some pretty spectacular, remarkable outcomes and an unexpected result, especially in what were presumed to be not really competitive congressional races. One of the notions going into this, Jerry, was that the maps had been drawn in such a way that many of these races, and we talked about this even back in 2024, that most These congressional races aren't very close because of the way they're drawn. And if you were to look across the swath of the entire country in all four hundred thirty-five congressional districts, you might have you know twenty-five to thirty that are competitive. The way it appears right now is is that there have been significant gains. Several news outlets have it reported that the U.S.
House will now be two hundred fifty-eight Democrats and one hundred and seventy-seven Republicans. Greg Murphy is only up by about two hundred and thirty-three votes or so, Jerry.
So There's a lot still out there. There is, and you know, it's interesting. People did assume Republicans have drawn the district lines. Therefore, certain numbers are going to be almost guaranteed as far as the outcome. And then some elections may be closer.
When the majority changed a big way, the last time was 2010, and that would have been right after the Democrats, who at that point were in the majority, had drawn the district lines.
So it's you know these assumptions we can make about the district lines being drawn. By a party guarantees a certain level of outcome. We're seeing no. That's not a guarantee. Absolutely.
Moving into some of the other statewide races, the judicial races. Justice Anita Earls was re-elected to the Supreme Court seat, and then Democrats won all three of the state's Court of Appeals races as well. And those were pretty consistent margins, sixty to forty percent ish in that range. And normally these statewide. Judicial races are decided by a very narrow margin of just a few percentage points.
There was a pretty wide spread here, and I think some of that had to do with the ads that we saw in the Supreme Court race that then drove the results in these down ballot races because they were all fairly similar outcomes. Yeah, and I know we weren't going to go too much into the details, but that's one is I think needs to be said because I and I knew we all had it like minded people saying, "Are these ads true?" About these judicial candidates, and you know, and you're going, no, it's taking something that happened and turning it a little bit and giving it a different appearance. You have to know that that had something, or maybe a lot, to do with that. Yeah, are you saying there's spin in politics? No way.
Yeah.
Well, and Sarah Stevens, who was challenging Anita Earls, is a long-standing House member who we've worked very closely with and very conservative member. And yeah, I mean, I heard from countless people, and it was the same thing. With the U.S. Senate race and a number of other races, just the advertising and the information that was put out, attack ads against the opposing candidate. You know, is this stuff actually true?
What does it mean? You know, how am I supposed to vote for someone when someone has at least maybe enough credible, possible information to make this statement? You know, and where do I go to find out the truth? And so, it's disturbing that in some cases elections have devolved to that point where. These attack ads are so prominent, and it's hard to filter through that to get to the truth.
A lot of times, so if there is any bright spot for Republicans on this past Tuesday night, it would probably be the North Carolina Senate, where only four Republicans lost. That they seem to be the four Republicans that were the battleground seats. There is a fifth senator, Danny Britt, who is ahead. And here's where I insert this, John. One of the things that has been a common thread.
Throughout many of the last several elections, Jerry is this thread of very close races. I think back to the primary from this past March, where there was a primary that came down to 23 votes. If you look back to the 24 race, a very close Supreme Court justice seat. You guys were telling me about a Supreme Court justice seat, the Chief Justice seat, about 400 votes. As goes the case with almost all of these recounts and canvases, the election night result.
Results are very often reaffirmed as a result of these, so that confirms the integrity of our election process, and that's a good thing. And so, what we're assuming is that most of these results will stay the same. The Senate will go from thirty Republicans and twenty Democrats currently, as of the results of Tuesday night, twenty-six Republicans and twenty-four Democrats—a very close, very thin majority for Republicans. Yeah, let me. Interject something.
Talking about the Senate, we're talking about a twenty-six to twenty-four margin.
Now, if there is a tie vote in the Senate, who gets to break the tie? The President of the Senate, which would be the Lieutenant Governor, who presides over the Senate or has the option, the opportunity to preside over the Senate. Democrat Rachel Hunt. Yes, and so for Republicans in the state Senate, if the majority holds at twenty-six twenty-four, they have to make sure that pretty much every show, all their members are there and that they're ready to do. Business because you know things could you know if there are a member or two absent you know that could change the dynamic there.
So the U.S. House flipped.
So did the N.C. House. The North Carolina House has also flipped. We went from seventy-one Republicans and forty-nine with two of those being unaffiliated Democrats after the primary. After the primary election, and now it appears that the number is going to be forty-eight Republicans, seventy-one.
Democrats and one unaffiliated member, and we'll see how she votes moving forward. She did run against a Republican in that race, so we'll see how that works itself out. John, again, to your point, I don't think any incumbent Democrats lost, right? And do we have a number on how many Republicans? I count using the results: eighteen incumbent Republicans were defeated in the state house races, and there are 120 seats in the state house, so that is.
Significant: eighteen incumbent Republicans defeated, no incumbent Democrats defeated. There are five House races that are within two hundred and fifty votes, and so you know, still those numbers—the forty-eight, seventy-one, and one—could change as a result of recounts and canvasses. But time will tell what happens there. Yes.
So, Jerry, there's a couple questions that remain. One of those questions is: What happens for the rest of this biennium? According to the adjournment resolution. They are they're allowed to come back in November and December. What do you see happening in the next couple of weeks?
You know, and I guess I could say, in theory, the Republicans right now having a supermajority in the Senate and one short in the House could come back, pass legislation in November if it's vetoed, still have an opportunity to come back in December to come back and override. What possible bills those might be? I know we talked before. About the hemp issue being one of those possibilities, it's hard to say.
Well, we'll keep you up to date on that. Whether or not they have enough members to even come back to Raleigh, we'll keep you up to date in the coming weeks. And it's important to note that these new numbers, yes, these results from this election do not take effect until January, until next year. And so, they're still, if Republicans in both the state house and state senate want to come back and do business, they still have the numbers to. Do that, so it's going to be interesting through the end of the year, and then we will certainly move into an entirely different legislative environment after that.
So, John, the eight hundred pound gorilla in the corner of the room for so many people right now is where do we go from here? And North Carolina Family Policy Council isn't going anywhere. Our job, our mission, our opportunity, our obligation stays the same. Yeah, we've been around for thirty-five plus years. Our mission, our vision has not changed that entire time.
We've worked under Democratic majorities. For many many years, Republicans took the House for two terms in the mid 90s. We worked with a split situation then, and then after the 2010 elections, Republicans took control of both chambers of the General Assembly for the first time since Reconstruction, and have held those two chambers since this election. And so the environment changes, the dynamics change, our values, our core issues: sanctity of life, religious liberty, parental rights, school choice, fighting gambling, and Drug expansion; those types of things; those do not change. Those are timeless values that we draw from the Bible, from a Christian worldview, biblical principles, and we're going to continue to fight for those values alongside you all who enable us to do that and equip us to do that, regardless of what the environment looks like.
We are a nonpartisan organization, but we work in a highly partisan environment, and so we value the relationships that we've developed over years and years. With members of the General Assembly, with staff and others down in that environment, folks in the executive branch, etc., and we will continue to be advocates for biblical, traditional family values, regardless of what the circumstance is. These two gentlemen have over fifty years combined experience inside the North Carolina General Assembly. It's it's fascinating to hear their stories from back in the day, and I think we're back in something very similar to that, Jerry. We are, and as you pointed out, John, over the course of the Thirty-five years, about half the times been under Democrat control, half the time under Republican, and it does just as you said, man.
Just bringing it back to what we believe and understand, God has called us to do is to be a voice for the people for what we understand and believe to be best for people's lives, whether it's encouraging good or discouraging things that we believe are harmful. And and another thing that we continue to remind ourselves is just as important as these. Issues that we work on is the way we communicate with Democrats and Republicans. We hope and pray in a way that reflects Christ in us. That those who are believers they're encouraged by that, and those who are not believers.
It's part of how God we pray draws people to Himself because we know ultimately the most important thing is people's relationship with God. That's what matters for eternity. Having that relationship and praying that God will work through us. In the legislative arena, in a way that brings glory to Him and that He draws people to Himself. And I would just add, Jerry, working in this field for over two decades, friends, we see God's hand at work frequently, and it is just affirmation that He cares, that He has not removed His hand of blessing and grace and mercy from our land, and we pray fervently that that continues.
And so, we really ask for your prayers so that we can. Be effective advocates, ambassadors for Christ in the public policy and political arena in North Carolina. Again, we see God's hand at work, and we know oftentimes the way that He orchestrates things we could never come up with on our own. And so we recognize that, and we're so grateful for it. And we continue to look forward to the future.
Challenging circumstances provide opportunities for God to work, and for us to clearly see His hand at work. Gentlemen, as I look back on the results, my mind is continually drawn to Isaiah 26 and verse three, which says, "You'll keep him in perfect peace whose mind is stayed and focused on you, because he trusts in you." And I think that's our opportunity to shine that light to the world around us. You have that opportunity to trust in God and have peace in your heart, knowing that regardless of any circumstances, God is in control, and we can trust in that. Thank you for listening to Family Policy Matters. If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to the show and leave us a review.
To learn more about NC Family and the work we do to promote and preserve faith and family in North Carolina, visit our website at ncfamily.org. That's ncfamily.org, and check us out on social media at ncfamilypolicy. Thanks, and may God bless you and your family.
