Welcome to Breakpoint, a daily look at an ever-changing culture through the lens of unchanging truth. For the Colson Center, I'm John Stonestreet. Recently, the title of an article at CNN announced that, and I quote, a tsunami of church closings is poised to remake America. And an author, John Blake, suggested that the United States could face a future that is really like Europe, quote, filled with empty cathedrals and church buildings converted to condos. One church he highlighted that once served a thousand people is soon closing its doors to only twelve congregants today.
From the article, quote. Experts project an estimated 100,000 churches in the U.S. will close or be repurposed over the next decade. Many churches will be unable to escape the tsunami of closings. A grim trajectory, one pastor described as every year the pews are getting emptier and the collection plates getting lighter.
Today, less than a third of Americans attend church weekly. 75 years ago, it was half the population. But is it true that 10,000 churches are closing every year? Not even. As Ed Stetzer, dean of Talbot Seminary, wrote in response to Blake's article, there is no evidence cited in the article or in the actual data that something like a tsunami of church closings is coming.
The data points to decline, but it's slow decline and churn, not a tsunami. Specifically, Stetzer argued that there's not evidence to suggest a net loss of 10,000 churches a year. For example, in 2024, 4,000 Protestant churches closed, but then 3,800 opened up. That's a drop of only about 200 that year. Even if you include Roman Catholic churches in the analysis, it doesn't approach that ten thousand number.
Also, these numbers don't really consider the somewhat recent experiments with multi-site congregations or the host of small non-denominational storefront churches that fly under the radar. The largest number Stutzer pointed out, the one hundred thousand churches to close in the next decade, really refers to church buildings that will be sold or repurposed, not congregations dying out. Churches that move are not reflected in those stats, and at least some of the shifting attendance numbers have to do with Christians moving from one church to another, not in and out of church altogether.
Now, part of the problem with the CNN article is its attempt to reinforce an already existing narrative it wants to sell you. Blake noted, for example, the cultural distrust of institutions, the political divide within churches, issues of sexual morality and identity affirmation. And various scandals in churches over the years. At the same time, his discussion of the positives that churches provide was really just limited to things like the importance of community and a sense of connection with the past. He worried about what would happen to the social services, for example, that churches provide if they no longer exist.
While all of those concerns are certainly valid, they're limited. Those are things that churches do. They're not what churches are. The churches, God. Gathered people, a church is where God's word is proclaimed, his sacraments are practiced, and his people are discipled.
Blake ignored all questions of truth or genuine spirituality. Like too many have, he assumed that if churches don't get with the times and update their doctrines to appeal to younger generations, they'll simply die out. And those outrageous numbers were the proof he was looking for. In his view, creeds are secondary to marketing concerns. Any talk about spirituality has to be.
Subjective, primarily about meaning and connection, not about who God is and what He's doing in the world, and thus it should not be missed that the churches that are shrinking the fastest are those who think of themselves in that same way, marketing first, creed second. Thankfully, to paraphrase a line from Mark Twain, reports of the church's death are greatly exaggerated. The American church certainly has problems, and so far, the recent hopes for revival haven't really panned out. But it still His church, not ours, and he promised to preserve it, not always to grow it.
Now, predictions that the church will die out are not unusual. G. K. Chesterton wrote years ago that at least five times the faith has, to all appearance, gone to the dogs. In each of those five cases, it was the dog that died.
Jesus, of course, put it more strongly. He promised to build his church. He promised that the gates of hell could not stand against it. For the Colson Center, I'm John Stone Street with Breakpoint. Today's Breakpoint was co-authored with Dr.
Timothy Padgett. If you're a fan of Breakpoint, leave us a review wherever you download podcasts. And for more resources or to share this commentary with others, go to Breakpoint.org. Breakpoint listeners, my name is Billy Hutchinson, Director of Colson Educators. Living with wisdom means looking at the unique challenges of our cultural moment and being ready to apply God's word to specific situations.
In our moment, that means being clear on sexuality and gender. If you are ready to go deeper, so that you can equip the next generation with truth, I am excited to let you know that two new courses have been added to the Colson Educators platform. Grounded: A course for educators on identity and sexuality, and understanding gender ideology—a formation course for educators. Sign up today at CoulsonEducators.org. That's CoulsonEducators.org.
